International negotiations are now underway to determine countries' greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction obligations once the first set of Kyoto Protocol targets expire in 2012.

The Pembina Institute is making the case for Canada to play a responsible part in preventing dangerous climate change by committing to appropriate national emission targets for the medium and long term.

The Case for Deep Reductions

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the basis for the global effort to reduce greenhouse gas pollution. The convention has been ratified by virtually every country in the world. The UNFCCC's "ultimate objective" is to "achieve... stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic [human-caused] interference with the climate system."

There is now quite wide support, both in the scientific community and among governments, for defining "dangerous" climate change as a rise in the global average surface temperature of 2°C above the pre-industrial level. Although the European Union has chosen to make the 2°C limit a key part of their long-term climate policy, Canada’s government has yet to take a position on what temperature level constitutes dangerous climate change.

Staying within the 2°C limit will require that global GHG emissions fall to at least 50% below the 1990 level by 2050. Developed countries need to make proportionately larger reductions in reaching that target, because they:

• generated most of the emissions to date
• emit much more per capita than developing countries, and
• have more resources to fight climate change.

Analysis of reasonable ways to share the global effort indicates that industrialized countries must reduce their emissions to 25-30% below 1990 levels by 2020, and 85-90% below 1990 levels by 2050. Given the scale of this challenge, developed countries must start immediately down a path to deep reductions. Any delay will almost certainly result in greater costs over the long term.

Negotiating "Kyoto Phase II"

The UNFCCC is a “convention”, a treaty creating a general framework for global action. “Protocols” are added to conventions to establish more specific legal requirements. The Kyoto Protocol to the UNFCCC sets legally binding GHG emission targets for the period 2008-12 as a first step towards the UNFCCC’s ultimate objective of preventing dangerous climate change. Canada’s Kyoto target is to reduce its GHG emissions to 6% below the 1990 level during 2008-12, but the federal government is proposing not to reach this target until after 2020.

At the annual United Nations climate conference held in Montreal in December 2005, the countries in the Kyoto Protocol launched a process to negotiate a second set of targets for the years after 2012. However, countries have not yet adopted a formal negotiating mandate or a deadline for reaching agreement. Despite announcing that it will not meet its first Kyoto target, Canada remains part of this process.

In April 2007, Canada’s Environment Minister John Baird announced new targets to reduce Canada’s GHG emissions to 20% below the 2006 level by 2020, and to 60-70% below the 2006 level by 2050. This would leave Canada’s emissions about 2% above the 1990 level in 2020 and would reduce them to 49-62% below the 1990 level by 2050.

Other nations have already committed to targets more closely aligned with the science. The European Union's governments have made a unilateral commitment to reduce their emissions to 20% below the 1990 level by 2020. If other developed nations make comparable commitments, the EU says that it will strengthen its 2020 target to 30% below the 1990 level.

In the longer term, California has committed to reduce its emissions to 80% below the 1990 level by 2050, and France to 75-80% below the 2004 level (which was slightly below the 1990 level). Even more ambitiously, Norway is proposing to be “carbon neutral” – or to make a 100% reduction in its emissions – by 2050.

What is Pembina Doing?

Based on a detailed analysis presented in our report The Case for Deep Reductions, Pembina believes that the Government of Canada should adopt targets to reduce Canada's net GHG emissions to 25% below the 1990 level by 2020 and 80% below the 1990 level by 2050. Given the scale of the challenge, Canada must start working towards these targets immediately. Any delay will almost certainly result in greater costs over the long term.

Pembina is actively making the case for these targets in all key discussions relevant to Canada’s post-2012 commitments, and we are closely following the international negotiations on "Kyoto Phase II."